Resisting the pull of cynicism since 1969.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Quebec poll: provincial and federal

Some interesting results from the latest CROP poll out of Québec:

The ADQ is the most popular party provincially. On the other hand, ADQ leader Dumont is polling well behind his party. (Didn't that used to be the other way around?)

59% would vote 'no' on a sovereignty referendum.

Federally, the NDP is now polling at 17% in Québec. This is only two points behind the Liberals, and it means that their numbers in Québec are approximately even with their numbers across the country now. A bit of this vote seems to be coming from the Liberals, but more of it is coming from the Bloc. And while the NDP got a sizable post-byelection bounce, the Conservatives did not.

6 comments:

Michel Fortin said...

It's not that surprising. Bloc voters are much more likely than anyone else to be anti-Liberal -- and especially anti-Dion -- voters. so they either go for the Conservatives or they go for the NPD when they decide to leave the Bloc.

I also remember seeing some opinion pool results showing that a majority of Quebeckers would prefer a minority government. I'm not sure if the question applied to provincial or federal, but it could also be a factor when deciding for who to vote (the NPD isn't seen likely to get a majority, so it becomes a better candiate than either Liberals or Conservatives).

Idealistic Pragmatist said...

Michel,

Do you have any explanation for the ADQ/Dumont juxtaposition? Is the ADQ vote just a protest vote?

Ben said...

That's nuts -- the one man in the one-man-party is polling behind the party?

Here's my take: people really don't like the Liberals in Quebec, period, provincially or federally, but they don't want to break the country up either.

Also, especially what with the "reasonable accomodation" debate, people are turning more towards the political right. This is the old Union Nationale vote, I think.

All of which is good for the survival of Canada as a political entity, but not so good for those who have a certain distinct view of what it should be, philosophically.

Michel Fortin said...

I'd say it is, at least in part, a protest vote. But beyond that, I'm not sure. The thing is that many people (including me) find the three leading parties unappealing, and that many of them don't really know where to put their votes. There's 14% of undecided in this poll; I'm not sure if that's very high or not for a poll, but I'm pretty sure the party numbers are pretty volatile.

As for Mario Dumont, I think he and his party is not seen apt enough to be in power (yet). Does that make it a protest vote? I'd say it depends of the definition; are all votes for the Bloc protest votes?

Radical Centrist said...

A bit of this vote seems to be coming from the Liberals, but more of it is coming from the Bloc.

Which is why i don't think the Liberals will lose any of the seats they currently hold in Montreal because if you look at the breakdown for the provincial parties, non-franco support for the Liberals is 68%. That's the same group that votes Liberal federally. They're not overly left-leaning since their next favourite parties are the ADQ and the Greens, with Quebec suicidaire a distant fourth and the PQ dead last simply because of the separatism thing. If anything, the NDP siphoning Bloc supporters may actually benefit the Liberals in some ridings (ones where it was a close race between the BQ and Liberal candidate and won by the BQ). Outremont was largely due to Mulcair. I really think if the NDP had run Joe Bleau in that riding, they wouldn't have won.

neilmck@sympatico.ca said...

I'd guess that a substantial portion of the ADQ vote is soft nationalists who have moved from the Liberals. They don't want a complete break from Canada but they want more autonomy for Quebec.
Duomont has blanketed this issue.