Resisting the pull of cynicism since 1969.

Monday, October 06, 2008

I think this is my dream poll

From the Globe and Mail.

CP: 32%
LP: 25%
NDP: 21%
GP: 12%
BQ: 8%

The Conservatives down, the Liberals mired in the mid-twenties but not tanking, the NDP and the Greens both at record highs. If only it were election day.

15 comments:

Deanna said...

Has anyone been able to find a link to the full results? I'd really like to see more than just what the various news outlets have reported.

But yes, this is very good news. :-)

Anonymous said...

Liberal-NDP-Green coalition government, I hope.

Idealistic Pragmatist said...

Deanna,

I don't keep track of stuff like that, I'm afraid, but maybe Greg Staples would know?

Idealistic Pragmatist said...

anon,

Which Green seats are winnable? I'd love to see them take one or two, but I'm not seeing the numbers (e.g., over at democraticspace.com).

Omega said...

This is rather ambiguous, but I think there's a chance for the numbers to get even better over the next week.

I still say our numbers are being influenced by sentiment and reality in the USA.

Canada has been a retreat-path for the post 2K breed of neo-conservatism. But I think people are finally start to catch on to the last 8 years of marketing greed.

So long as the reformatives lose ground, I don't care who picks up the votes.

Deanna said...

Found it:
Harris Decima poll results

Very interesting, especially the regional and gender breakdowns. Women seem to be driving the boost for the NDP, while men seem to be driving the drop for the Conservatives. :-)

IE: Women are moving from Lib to NDP and Green, men are moving from Con to Lib.*

* Obviously these are generalizations.

MrvnMouse said...

It looks like the other pollsters are catching up to what Nanos was saying a few days back.

If Ekos echoes these results as well, then it's likely not only are we heading into another minority, but perhaps even a non-Conservative one.

MrvnMouse said...

Note: http://pollingreport.ca has all of the latest polls with connections to the full releases from the polling companies.

Greg said...

I just wish we had STV right now. :)

Olaf said...

Greetings IP,

I hate all this poll gazing, I think it's generally stupid and a waste of time, since it goes up and down until it gets back to where it started. That said, it's difficult to dispute that there is a trend line here, and it aint lookin' pretty for the Tories. Wonder how the platform launch will work out. I can't help but think they have a couple of tricks up their sleeve, but I could be way off. Stranger things have happened.

Chris said...

Best summary of polls is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2008

Stephen K said...

My dream poll would be the Harpercons not being on top, but it certainly is an improvement.

catherine said...

Thanks for that link, Chris. (for others, it ends with _election,_2008) It clearly shows the recent trend of the Conservatives declining. If the trends continued, the results would get even better than the HD Oct 5 poll, and Harper would no longer be Prime Minister. That's my dream.

noamzs said...

Don't bet on a Grit/NDP/Green coalition. The Bloc won't let that happen. Besides, just because their numbers are good, doesn't mean the NDP will gain that many seats, or that the Greens will even win one. Remember our electoral system? If you have broad support, which those parties do, you do not get rewarded for it. That's why I'm boycotting this election; I'm sick of dropping my ballot in the ballot box, when I might as well be dropping it in the garbage can.

MSS said...

That's a stunning poll. And as many readers of this blog probably know, Democratic Space currently projects something pretty close to that vote breakdown.

It is so nice that somewhere in North America, there is an actual interesting election this fall!